Clear Skies Over Sarigerme Beach

Clear Skies Over Sarigerme Beach

Is it just me, or are weather forecasts getting worst every passing year. Here in the U.S., the NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the responsible agency for collecting and processing weather data, forecasting and issuing warnings. The NOAA uses supercomputers running mathematical models to make guesses - they like to call it forecasting. And they're not very good at it.

In 2012, the correct path of Hurricane Sandy was predicted by European forecast models four days before the NOAA confirmed it. A few weeks ago, "one of the largest blizzards in the history of New York City" simply was not. We're pretty much clueless when it comes to chaotic problems.

If something has a complexity of O(n!) - i.e. permutation complexity - or greater, "calculation" and "prediction" lose their meaning. Think about it, 70! is greater than the number of atoms in the universe. Just relax and enjoy the good weather when you can.

Sarigerme Beach
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